Sciemus SpaceRAT

Sciemus' Space Risk Assessment Tool or "SpaceRAT" is a complex analytical model that evaluates the technical risk associated with a satellite. It provides a detailed understanding of the probability of satellite failure and the impact of such failures on the performance of the satellite from launch until the end of design life and beyond. This is achieved through the combination of highly sophisticated analytical methodology with three decades of comprehensive satellite reliability data. SpaceRAT was built in conjunction with QinetiQ specifically for the purpose of evaluating the risk of failure associated with satellites.

"Sciemus SpaceRAT provides valuable estimates of satellite failure risks – a significant risk for securitisation structures of in-orbit satellite cash flows" PwC, 2007

At any one time the model can give 10 to the power of 32 permutations of satellite reliability each model year is the result of two million years simulations of that satellite's reliability.

Sciemus' SpaceRAT was developed by more than forty scientists over a two year period. Unlike most modelling processes that rely upon the analysis of past losses of an entire satellite, SpaceRAT analyses the reliability of each critical component within a satellite and highlights high risk areas given the history and legacy of the spacecraft. For an operational satellite, additional data such as loss of redundancy or failures of particular components is incorporated into the analysis. These reliabilities are combined to produce an overall technical risk of failure rate for the satellite.

"Back testing results show all of the past 11 years of market experience fall within a 95% confidence interval based on results provided by SpaceRAT for failures in the market." PwC, 2007